The net-zero impact of World Bank projects in Somalia

In
2013 during the creation of the economic recovery plan (ERP), the notion of
upgrading the electrical infrastructure was proposed. The WB appears to be
nearly ten years behind the country’s rebuilding efforts. As of 2015,
practically all significant urban areas had 11 KV distribution systems invested
by the private sector.

Clearly,
150M will not build a national grid and that is why the project has other
components in small print. One of these components is to facilitate
interconnection between Electricity Service Providers (ESP) within Mogadishu,
for example, and within neighbouring cities. However, I would like to remind
the WB that they could not interconnect the communication companies, which only
requires software code, despite spending over 8M USD. The physical interconnection
between competing ESP’s will definitely pose more of a challenge than the
communication companies.

But
why do we need to interconnect the ESP’s in the first place? What is the point?
And why do we need a centralised national grid? I understand the need for
interconnecting different mobile companies in Somalia which means you would not
have to carry two sets of mobile phones to call your friends, but why ESP’s? If
the answer is reducing costs or paving the way for National grid, we are all
missing the point.

There
will be no cost reduction, even if the ESP’s agree and the development of
National grid in Somalia is uneconomical at best. Somalia has a vast territory,
geographically stretched and loosely populated. Decentralised local mini-grids
combined with Solar PV generation is the only way forward for national
electrification. The only interconnection needed in Somalia is regional
interconnection with the Ethiopian grid but the WB thinks that Somalia is not
ready for regional interconnection without national grid. What about the border
cities such as Beledwayn? Beledwayn has 11 KV local grid and is 50KM away from
the Ethiopian grid.

1.   The
completed SEAP

In
2014, WB commissioned the ‘electricity Master Plan for Somalia’. This rather
abstract document costed one million US dollars. In the following year, a 5.5
million Somali electricity access project (SEAP) was launched. Let’s have a
look at this project’s components and how much has been achieved. Table 1 below
shows the Project’s components, whether they have been completed and its
impact.

Table 1: Project components
and impact.

Let
us examine the components one by one:

a.   Component 1 (US$ 3M): Electrification of households and
small businesses through standalone solar home systems.

It
was clear for any energy expert and/or practitioner with cultural knowledge of
Somalia, that electrifying the nation with pico-solar will be a waste of time
and resources. The average number of children in Somali households is six and culturally
boys and girls do not share rooms which means even in poorer villages people
will have more than two rooms requiring more lighting areas. But the WB decided
to supply 10W Pico-Solar to 300,000 households in Somalia and called
“Electrification of households and businesses”. What would you do with 10W? I advised
the WB on the pico-solar application in Somalia during ERP development in 2013.

Less
than 10% of the pico-solar distributed is currently in use. In Somalia, more
than 90% of adults have a mobile phone with a lighting function. These phones
called ‘Niicle’ in Somalia, costs £10 and while WB solar latrine from the WB
costs £20 without the ability to call your mother. Which one of the two would
you keep?

b.   Component 2 (US$ 1M): Analytical work for enabling
electrification through solar powered/hybrid mini-grids;

a)   Detailed
geospatial mapping;

b)   Review
of property rights and land issues;               

c)   Pre-feasibility
studies for hybridization;

d)   Pre-feasibility
studies for greenfield (new) sites;               

e)   Developing
structuring options for the financing, operation, and ownership of new
mini-grids;

f)     Defining
legal, institutional and financing arrangements for developing mini-grids.

Component
2, is a written report and as far as I know only two sections of it (a and f) have
been completed by an international company based in Afghanistan.

c.   Component 3 (US$1.5M): Technical Assistance, Capacity
Building and Project Management – not even initiated. No such activities
have been undertaken unless this too was analytical. If the WB wrote reports on
TA, capacity building and project management on Somalia, I have not seen them.

2.   Proposed
SERP Project

Which
component of the proposed SERP will fail?

3.   Recommendations

a.   Recommendation
for the WB

·     Make
a U-turn on this project and go back to the Basics. A country owned and country
led project that is aligned with the priorities of Somalia.

·     Turn
your rather powerful energy coordination office into a Somalian Electricity
Agency and work with the Ministry of Energy.

·     Increase
the energy generation with sizable renewable energy sources.

b.   Recommendations
for the Government

·     Take
the lead and align the donor partners projects with national priorities.

c.   Recommendations
for the ESP’s

·     Forget
about the donor assistance and electrify the nation by investing in steam
turbines as the country needs energy to develop.

d.   Recommendations
for me

·     Forget
Somalia and its energy sector and go back to London, UK.

It
is now obvious that neither the intended targets nor myself will even consider
any of the aforementioned recommendations. I believe that business as usual
will proceed.

By: Jacfar
Jimcale is an  Energy
Expert in Somalia  and can be reached at: jaffjimale@gmail.com